After two strong years for markets in 2023 and 2024, investors entered 2025 with caution. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty around global trade policy created questions about the path of inflation, interest rates, and economic growth.
While these concerns remained in the background throughout the year, alongside strained relationships between the U.S. and several trading partners, the global economy proved more resilient than many expected. Growth was modest, inflation pressures eased, and by mid-year the feared tariff-driven jump in inflation had not appeared as proposed trade measures were often softened or delayed when bond markets reacted negatively.
With inflation looking more contained and labour markets showing signs of cooling, central banks shifted from holding rates steady to a state of gradual easing. U.S., European, and Canadian central banks each cut rates multiple times over the course of the year.
Equity markets generally welcomed this shift toward lower rates. In technology, the AI theme continued to dominate headlines as leading companies invested heavily in data centres and new AI models, and the market became more selective about which businesses had credible, executable AI strategies. International equities outperformed U.S. stocks in 2025, helped by changes in trade policy, favourable currency moves, and improving investor confidence.
Bond markets were challenged early in the year as uncertainty pushed yields higher and weighed on returns. Conditions improved as rate cuts progressed and short-term securities performed well, while longer-term government bonds lagged as investors balanced expectations for moderate growth with concerns about larger fiscal deficits and longer-term inflation risks.
In summary, public equities delivered strong results in 2025. Results were mixed elsewhere in the portfolio, in particular illiquid private market assets faced headwinds amid valuation uncertainty against the macroeconomic backdrop. Overall, PSPP’s diversified portfolio continues to generate solid returns, 7.5% for the year and 6.5% annualized over the last four years.